Unity looks different. Some of the car manufacturers and nations want to put an end to the combustion engine by 2040 at the latest. Others consider it premature. According to the analysts at the Berylls management consultancy, the future form of drive will not be decided in Europe anyway.
The request of the six car manufacturers on the occasion of the climate summit in Glasgow is worthy of all honor. Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Volvo, Jaguar / Land Rover and BYD do not want to sell any more cars with combustion engines by 2040 at the latest. 24 states have agreed to this. Germany, China and the USA (states like California do), however, do not. For the incumbent Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer, the combustion engine is premature. “We want to make them climate-neutral with synthetic fuels and preserve the advantages of the technology”; declared the CSU politician.
BMW boss Oliver Zipse put it even more drastically: “This is far too short-sighted. I can only warn against taking this path.” In Zapse’s view, traditional drive technology can only be abandoned when the charging infrastructure allows the switch to exclusively electric vehicles. And there is currently still a lot of trouble. The BMW boss is not alone in this opinion. The entire Stellantis group, to which brands like Opel, Peugeot and Citroën belong, says “No” as well as Honda, Hyundai-Kia and Renault-Nissan.
If the vehicles with combustion engines were to end violently, there would probably be a boomerang effect. Because many people would then just keep driving their cars. The vehicles on Germany’s roads are already an average of ten years old. There are tough economic considerations behind this “no”. “If the globally announced sales or registration bans for vehicles with internal combustion engines were to apply today, 43 million units or 55.9 percent of the current global sales volume would be affected,” explains Andreas Radics, managing partner of the Berylls Group.
Even if the scales will lean in favor of electric vehicles in the next few years, it is clear that structurally weak markets in particular will still be dependent on combustion engines for a long time. On the one hand, because the charging infrastructure in these areas is not yet sufficiently developed and, on the other hand, because people simply cannot afford a new electric vehicle. So whoever throws vehicles with combustion engines out of the program prematurely, closes off sources of income. “For the OEMs, the extended period means that they will have to drive on multiple tracks for many years to come. On the one hand, they need a convincing range of e-cars, especially for the megacities Lose focus in order to be able to serve rural and infrastructural areas “, states Andreas Radics and adds:” For the providers of expensive premium models this may be bearable, for volume manufacturers the decision against combustion engines means a hard cut. “
One way out of this dilemma could be e-fuels. Despite the great efforts that Porsche is making, for example, it remains to be seen whether synthetic fuels can be produced in large enough quantities and, above all, economically sensible to give internal combustion engines a climate-neutral future.
Even if Europe is eager to reduce CO2 emissions, the drive music of the future will be played by China anyway. “In the end, the driving bans of many small states, including Germany, are to be assessed positively, but of secondary importance for global development. Even if more and more nations are thinking about such bans or want to bring them forward, China decides how the powertrain will be the future will look like, “says Andreas Radics. The strategists there quickly realized that the economic upturn could not be sustained by concentrating on electromobility. After all, the Chinese manufacturers also want to sell cars outside of their own country. In the country, too, there is good reason to hold onto the combustion engine for a while in order to guarantee the stabilizing prosperity of the middle class.
Nevertheless: By 2035, all new vehicles sold in the world’s largest car market must be powered by “new energies”. This means an equal division into electric, fuel cell or plug-in hybrid vehicles on the one hand, and hybrid vehicles on the other. From this it is already clear that the combustion engine will still be active in China for a while. Especially since the switch to purely electric mobility is not planned until 2060. So much later than previously assumed.
Source From: Stern