Despite the decline in the number of global conflicts, regional and local ones continue to rage and claim lives at the expense of devastation and famine, writes Foreign Policy magazine, published on December 29, forecasting 10 military conflicts in 2022.
The weakening of US ambitions on the world stage has led to the weakening of a number of major military conflicts. The number of people killed in hostilities around the world has largely declined since 2014 – if you count only those killed in combat.
“But local conflicts are raging more than ever, although they tend to be less intense. For the most part, the wars of the 21st century are less deadly than their 20th century predecessors. Foreign involvement in conflicts creates the risk that local clashes will escalate and involve major powers, ”writes Richard Atwood, executive vice president of the International Crisis Group.
The publication notes that one should not underestimate the capabilities of the United States: despite the decline in the share of participation in major conflicts, “American power and alliances have structured global affairs for decades.” According to the author, Washington’s ability to create coalitions with the country’s and NATO forces deployed around the world still makes them significant players on the world stage. But now a lot is changing, and “Washington’s rivals are trying to figure out how far they can go.”
“A clash between China and the United States over Taiwan is unlikely in 2022, but the Chinese and American military are increasingly clashing around the island and in the South China Sea, with all the dangers that come with it. If the nuclear deal with Iran collapses, which now seems likely, the United States or Israel could try – perhaps even in early 2022 – to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, which will likely push Tehran to develop weapons. In other words, one setback or miscalculation, and interstate war can resume, “- says Atwood.
The top three potentially dangerous conflicts in 2022 are Ukraine, Ethiopia and Afghanistan.
According to Atwood, Russia’s plans on this issue are unclear to the Western world, “but it would be a mistake to dismiss this threat as a bluff.” The conflict between the military and the forces of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray in Ethiopia may provoke radical Islamists. The situation in Afghanistan is unstable in that since the arrival of the Taliban (the Taliban movement is under UN sanctions for terrorist activities) to power in August, a humanitarian catastrophe is imminent in the country. UN data show that millions of Afghan children could starve to death.
Atwood also calls the conflicts between the United States and Canada, Iran and the United States with Israel, the situation in Yemen, relations between Palestine and Israel, Haiti, Myanmar and the activities of Islamists in Africa capable of development in 2022.
British experts on December 30 told what the scenario of the third world war could be. In their opinion, states will use IT technologies. For example, the United Kingdom has cut funding for traditional weapons and focused on the development of artificial intelligence and cyber security.
Source: IZ
Jane Stock is a technology author, who has written for 24 Hours World. She writes about the latest in technology news and trends, and is always on the lookout for new and innovative ways to improve his audience’s experience.
